The Institute for Economics & Peace has published the 2026 Global Peace Index, which finds that artificial intelligence and drone warfare are reshaping conflict.
Global peacefulness deteriorated for a 12th straight year, with 99 countries recording a decline over the past year, the highest number since the index began two decades ago. The study found that 119 countries, or 73%, are now less peaceful than when the index was first published.
The number of active state-based conflicts reached 61, the highest level since the end of the Second World War. Countries engaged in external conflict almost doubled to 103 from 59 in 2008, while conflict deaths remained at historic highs, at more than 181,000 in 2025.
The economic toll of violence also rose. The institute estimated the global economic impact of violence at USD $21.81 trillion in 2025, equal to 10.5% of global GDP, while global military spending reached a record USD $2.9 trillion.
Machine-speed war
A central theme of the index is the speed at which new technologies are changing warfare. Military targeting cycles that took about a day in the 1990s can now take as little as five seconds when artificial intelligence is used to identify and process targets.
That compression is reducing the time available for human review in lethal decisions. In Gaza, algorithmic targeting systems have reportedly cut human review to about 20 seconds per strike, while in Ukraine autonomous systems are being used to engage targets without an operator in the loop.
The study highlighted the spread of drones as a parallel shift in warfare. Recorded drone attacks rose by more than 11,500% between 2018 and 2025, and 565 armed groups, including criminal cartels, were identified as having carried out drone attacks during that period.
These trends mean lethal force is becoming cheaper and more accessible to both states and non-state groups. International governance has not kept pace: 118 of 193 UN member states are absent from global AI governance initiatives.
Fragmented order
Beyond technology, the report described a broader geopolitical shift it called the "Great Fragmentation". The influence of traditional European powers has weakened over the past three decades as middle powers have grown in importance and multilateral mechanisms have lost force.
Since 1995, Germany's share of global GDP has fallen by 49%, France's by 44% and Italy's by 42%, according to the report. Over the same period, the share of conflicts ending in a peace agreement fell from 23% in the 1970s to 4% in the past decade.
The institute said conflict clusters are becoming more internationalised and harder to resolve. Internationalised intrastate conflicts have increased by 175% since 2010, with local wars now more closely linked through refugee flows, proxy support, illicit trade and wider regional instability.
Sudan was cited as the world's most severe humanitarian crisis, with an estimated 150,000 people killed, more than 12 million displaced and famine confirmed in multiple regions. The war there is partly self-financing through gold production, with the Rapid Support Forces producing an estimated 10 tonnes in 2024 worth about USD $860 million.
Regional shifts
Iceland remained the most peaceful country for the 19th consecutive year, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia and Ireland. Russia ranked as the least peaceful country for the first time, followed by Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ukraine and Israel.
Europe remained the most peaceful region, home to seven of the 10 most peaceful countries, although its long-term trend of demilitarisation has reversed sharply since 2022. The Middle East and North Africa remained the least peaceful region.
South Asia recorded the largest regional deterioration. Nepal suffered the steepest drop in the rankings, falling 26 places, while Pakistan fell to 152nd.
In North and Central America, the United States fell 4% to 134th place, its lowest position since the index was created. The report linked the decline to political instability and a rise in violent demonstrations.
The index also examined the economic risks tied to war in Iran, describing it as a force multiplier for regional instability. It estimated that successful diplomacy to prevent the conflict from restarting would be worth about USD $2.2 trillion to the global economy.
Steve Killelea, Founder and Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics & Peace, said: "As the 'Great Fragmentation' intensifies, the institutions of peace are being outpaced by rapid changes in geopolitics and technology, and governments are struggling to keep up. Conflict clusters are becoming more internationalised and larger, making them exceptionally difficult to resolve. The most significant of these clusters is the arc of instability now stretching from South Asia through Iran and the Middle East, and into the Horn of Africa.
"AI and autonomous drone technology are making life and death decisions with human oversight reduced to seconds. At the same time, governance systems are lagging behind real-world events as civilian casualties soar. The humanitarian consequences are considerable."