CFOs eye record profit growth as AI boosts returns

Grant Thornton's latest U.S. survey found a record share of Chief Financial Officers expect net profit growth over the next 12 months, even as finance leaders remain less upbeat about the broader U.S. economy.

The survey of nearly 230 U.S. finance leaders found 80% expect their organisation's net profits to grow over the next year, the highest reading since Grant Thornton began asking the question 18 quarters ago. By contrast, 46% said they are optimistic about the U.S. economy.

More than one-third of respondents, 35%, expect net profit growth of more than 10%. That tops the previous survey high of 30% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Grant Thornton linked some of that confidence to artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains. Almost two-thirds of finance leaders (65%) rated the performance and quality of AI technology as good or excellent, while 2% rated it poor or very poor.

"Business leaders are very confident that they're going to hit their net profit forecasts, and part of that is backed up by the fact that they're seeing the productivity gains that they expected from AI," said Paul Melville, Chief Growth Officer at Grant Thornton Advisors.

AI returns

The findings suggest many companies are seeing operational returns from their AI spending. Eighty-four per cent of finance leaders said AI return on investment is meeting or exceeding expectations.

At the same time, the survey indicated productivity gains are outpacing top-line impact. Only 33% of finance leaders cited enhanced revenue as a benefit of AI, suggesting broader commercial gains remain less common than efficiency improvements.

Finance and accounting was the leading function for AI-driven transformation, cited by 39% of respondents. Customer service followed at 36%, and cybersecurity at 30%.

Supply chain ranked much lower, with only 6% placing it among the top three areas for AI transformation. The figures suggest AI use is concentrated in internal processes and support functions rather than more complex operational networks.

"CFOs are using a broader lens of what value is, so they're seeing those returns," said Sumeet Mahajan, a Partner in the AI, Data & Tech practice at Grant Thornton Advisors. "Some companies are also deploying transformative workflow-level use cases and realizing the benefits. The momentum is exciting and encouraging."

Execution pressure

The survey also found rising pressure to deliver AI and broader transformation programmes from several directions. Respondents reported high or very high pressure from competitors, boards, investors, and customers, with competitors cited most often at 46%.

Even so, most finance leaders said their organisations are broadly on track. Some 84% said transformation progress is meeting or exceeding expectations.

That headline measure came with clear warnings on execution. Competing business priorities and budget constraints were each cited by 43% of respondents as the main barriers to transformation, while 33% said more disciplined prioritisation would improve their organisation's ability to transform.

"The best organizations might put 15 objectives on a roadmap, but they need to identify three to five core enterprise priorities that they absolutely must get right," said Jennifer Morelli, a Partner in the Transformation practice at Grant Thornton Advisors. "That level of focus helps organizations make meaningful progress despite competing priorities and resource constraints."

The survey also highlighted technology and workforce issues. Better technology infrastructure was identified by 40% of respondents as the main step needed to improve transformation efforts, followed by better data and analytics at 35%.

Morelli said work design remains a distinct challenge alongside systems change. "You need to redesign the work," she said. "Companies spend time redesigning systems, but they don't spend time redesigning how people should do their job. That's a big opportunity to drive lasting value."

Trade and tax

Outside company operations, finance leaders reported a mixed policy picture. While 44% said the One Big Beautiful Bill Act had benefited their organisation, 21% said it had caused harm.

Tariffs and shifts in trade policy were more widely seen as a drag. Sixty per cent said those changes had negatively affected their organisation, compared with 26% who said they had benefited.

"It's clearly a mixed bag, with counterbalancing weights," said David Sites, National Managing Partner of the Washington National Tax Office and International Tax Solutions at Grant Thornton Advisors. "When you look at it on balance, OBBBA gave to businesses, and tariffs took away from businesses."

Sites said some businesses have yet to fully use the tax law's provisions. "You have to do your homework, and you have to be good at implementation to take advantage of all the benefits of the OBBBA," he said.

Despite those concerns, customer demand remained a support for sentiment. Some 61% of finance leaders said they had a positive view of customer demand, while 15% held a negative view.

The survey also showed little sign of imminent workforce cuts linked to AI adoption. Just 24% of finance leaders said their organisation has the potential for layoffs in the next six months, the lowest level recorded since Grant Thornton introduced that question in 2022.

"The American consumer remains fairly strong," Sites said. "Demand looks good, and the survey results indicate optimism about future profits and the ability to maintain growth. In a way, that all comes back to the American consumer."