Gartner sees quantum spending reaching USD $1.1 billion

Gartner expects global quantum computing revenue to reach USD $1.1 billion in 2027, after forecasting a market total of USD $869.9 million in 2026.

Spending is rising even though the sector remains at an early stage and still faces technical and commercial hurdles. Progress in algorithm development, gate speeds and scaling also suggests breakthroughs are happening faster.

Quantum computing spending is being driven by a mix of government interest, corporate research and early commercial use cases. Nations and businesses have increased investment in quantum literacy, patents, partnerships and the exploration of potential applications.

"Nations and businesses have scaled spending in quantum literacy, patents, partnerships, and early use-case exploration," said Gaurav Gupta, VP Analyst and Chief of Research for the emerging market dynamics research team at Gartner.

Gupta said the market is still contending with obstacles tied to the technology's maturity. At the same time, Gartner sees signs that limited practical use is beginning to emerge.

"While the market still faces challenges, advancements in algorithm development, gate speeds and scaling indicate that breakthroughs are happening more rapidly than initially expected. The early quantum advantage era has arrived because noisy intermediate-scale quantum processors now have enough qubits to do limited complex tasks with improved error reduction," said Gupta.

Public sector lead

Gartner expects the public sector to remain the largest contributor to quantum computing vendor revenue through 2027, driven by national efforts to secure technical leadership in the field.

Public sector spending is projected to reach USD $245 million in 2027, up from USD $219 million in 2026. That would keep government-related demand ahead of other sectors in the near term.

That is expected to change after that, with banking, finance and insurance overtaking the public sector in 2028 and remaining the largest source of spending through 2030.

Gartner pointed to portfolio optimisation, risk modelling and fraud detection as areas drawing interest in that sector. It expects banking, finance and insurance spending to reach USD $289 million in 2028, compared with projected public sector spending of USD $280 million.

Market pressure

Gartner also warned that the current market structure is unlikely to last, describing the quantum computing market as overcrowded relative to its present revenue base.

By 2030, the firm expects more than half of quantum computing startups to go out of business as commercial revenue proves insufficient and buyers reject qubit approaches that do not achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing. That points to a period of consolidation as companies compete to prove technical and commercial viability.

Even so, some Chief Information Officers are already making initial strategic investments. Organisations see quantum computing as a technology that could reshape competitive dynamics over time, and some want to build internal knowledge before broader adoption begins.

That preparation is likely to be a long-term effort rather than a quick deployment cycle. Technology leaders should think in terms of a sustained programme of learning, experimentation and positioning.

"CIOs and IT leaders should treat their quantum journey as a multiyear endeavour with the aim of gaining a competitive business advantage over their closest competitors," said Gupta.