Majority of US freight experts expect driverless trucks by 2050

A recent survey indicates that the majority of freight professionals in the United States expect self-driving trucks to have a significant presence on roads by 2050.

According to research conducted by Tech.co, 65% of professionals within the U.S. freight sector foresee widespread adoption of autonomous trucks within the next 25 years. The survey, which involved 518 transport and shipping professionals, highlights shifting attitudes within the industry as autonomous technologies continue to develop and enter the marketplace.

Confidence in the potential for driverless trucks was notable, with 42% of respondents predicting that broad use could occur as soon as 2040. This highlights an expectation that the transition to autonomous freight transport could progress rapidly if improvements in technology and regulatory clarity are achieved.

Adoption in controlled environments

Survey participants identified specific scenarios where self-driving trucks are viewed as a practical solution. 32% believe that autonomous trucks would be most effective during low traffic hours, while 31% selected long-haul highway journeys as the most suitable use case. Further, 29% identified highway trips between distribution centres as an area where driverless technology could have a substantial impact.

Conversely, only 18% believe that self-driving trucks are well-suited to short-haul journeys. This suggests there is less confidence in the application of autonomous technology for shorter or possibly more complex urban routes. Instead, many professionals consider long, straight highway segments or environments with minimal traffic, such as port operations, to be preferable for the early deployment of these systems.

Impact on workforce dynamics

The survey also addressed whether autonomous trucking might replace human drivers in the near future. If given the choice, nearly one-fifth of freight professionals (19%) indicated they would prefer to use a self-driving truck over hiring a new driver. This comes against a backdrop of labour shortages in the logistics sector, though 87% of those surveyed stated their companies currently have sufficient freight work to be completed.

With ongoing staff shortages, companies may look to alternative, technologically driven solutions to maintain or even expand their capacity. The integration of driverless vehicles is being considered by some as a response to recruitment difficulties and to help fulfil growing freight demand.

Jack Turner, Editor at Tech.co, noted both the advent of pilot schemes in places like Texas and the underlying optimism among freight operators, which could be shaped by challenges in attracting and retaining qualified drivers:

"Autonomous trucks may seem like a far flung future vision, but the reality is they're already here, with states such as Texas opening their roads to the technology. Despite being in its infancy, our research shows that the logistics industry is mostly feeling optimistic about self-driving trucks, possibly fueled by the ongoing recruitment crisis that has been hampering logistics in recent years."

Bianca Prieto, Editor of The Inside Lane trucking newsletter, provided further context regarding the changing nature of road freight work:

"We recognise that technology is shaping the future of freight, including the potential role of autonomous trucks. At the same time, professional drivers continue to play a critical role in keeping goods moving safely and efficiently."

Her comments reflect a measured industry outlook that, while acknowledging the rise of automation, underscores the ongoing need for experienced personnel within the sector.

Developments on U.S. roads

The survey findings coincide with actual deployments such as Aurora Innovation's introduction of fully autonomous trucks on a 200-mile section of Interstate 45 in Texas. Some industry observers see this real-world implementation of driverless logistics operations as a precursor to wider-scale adoption.

As technology progresses and regulatory frameworks are established, future industry standards may evolve to incorporate both autonomous systems and human drivers, depending on route complexity and operational requirements.

The research presents a snapshot of current perspectives within the U.S. freight transport sector, offering insights into where professionals see potential value in self-driving solutions as well as areas where human expertise is still regarded as essential.