Forrester: AI to drive modest job losses, not apocalypse

Forrester forecasts that artificial intelligence will account for 6% of total job losses in the US by 2030, while wider fears of large-scale job replacement remain overstated.

The research firm estimates that AI could contribute to 10.4 million roles being lost over the period. It also predicts that AI will augment 20% of US jobs over the next five years, rather than remove them outright.

Forrester links the limits of job replacement to productivity. It said labour productivity would need to rise sharply for AI to replace human workers at scale.

Layoffs and hype

The report argues that companies risk making expensive errors when they over-automate roles based on AI hype. Forrester said these moves can lead to costly pullbacks, reputational damage, and weaker employee experiences.

It also said that AI claims in redundancy announcements can mask other drivers. The report states that financially driven layoffs are being confused with AI-driven layoffs.

Forrester said some companies announcing AI-linked job cuts do not have mature applications in place. It described a trend of "AI washing", where organisations attribute financially motivated cuts to future AI implementation.

Uneven impact

The forecast expects the impact of AI to vary by occupation. It said junior roles, software developers, and customer service representatives will see the most pressure.

Forrester also pointed to a risk of reversal in the way organisations execute workforce change. Its future-of-work predictions for 2026 state that over half of layoffs attributed to AI will be quietly reversed, as companies confront operational difficulties when replacing people prematurely.

The findings add detail to a wider debate in boardrooms about whether AI reduces headcount or shifts the structure of work. Many employers have signalled intentions to automate parts of customer operations, software delivery, and back-office work, while also expanding investment in data, security, and AI governance roles.

Skills and governance

Forrester said organisations need to invest in employee AI skills if they expect returns from AI spending. It described AI as an augmenting force across a sizeable portion of the workforce, and it said employers should focus on training and upskilling.

The report also references measures that it calls the technology change quotient and artificial intelligence quotient. Forrester said organisations can use these measures to assess readiness, build skills, and train staff on the ethical use of AI.

J. P. Gownder, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester, framed the risk as a leadership and governance challenge rather than a near-term employment collapse.

"We may not be heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, but how organizations handle AI today will define more than just their future success," said J. P. Gownder, Vice President and Principal Analyst, Forrester. "To navigate the complexity around the human and AI era, leaders must prioritize governance and invest in their people - treating AI not as a replacement for human talent but as a tool to enhance it."

APAC outlook

Forrester said it expects similar themes to play out across Asia Pacific, even though the forecast uses US job data. The firm highlighted organisational readiness and communication as key variables for the region.

"AI will reshape jobs across Asia Pacific-that's certain. What's uncertain is whether enterprises are ready," said Frederic Giron, VP and Senior Research Director, Forrester. "Success by 2030 depends on how transparently CIOs and their C-suite partners govern AI deployment and communicate business process reinvention. Organisations that treat transformation as something done with employees, not to them, will capture AI's value."

Forrester's forecast points to a near-term focus on reskilling, deployment controls, and changes to workflows, rather than rapid removal of large parts of the workforce.